European Security Council Members Fear 'Total War Against Israel' After Haniyeh Killed by Mossad in Iran

Outline

1. Introduction

Summary of the context

• The event at a global level

2. Background on Ismail Haniyeh

• Participation of Hamas and his impact on it

3. Details of the Killing

• How and where it happened

Firestorm Inside Iran/outside world

4. Iran's Response

• Iranian leaders' comments

• Public sentiment in Iran
• Possible retaliation plans

5. Global Reactions

• Audit Alert: Security Council Off-Site Emergency Meeting
• Some Key Statements as of UN Members(US, Russia, China etc.
• Response by the EU

6. Middle East Implications

• Increased prospects of violence in Gaza and environs;

Why this matters for the Israel-Palestine conflict

Only Other Regional Powers* What about Saudi Arabia etc

7. More from UN Security Council

• Worries about a single episode spinning into overall war.
• Couple call for restraint, diplomacy
• Past Incidents of a Similar Nature

8. Internal politics of Iran

• Iranian election implications

• Based on the Iranian political spectrum

9. Israel's Position

How Israel Sees This

• Israeli leadership comments

As far as the implications to security In Israel.

10. U.S. Involvement

(White House via AP)

Americans-direct Intrusion into the region;

• Possible U.S. Re-Engagement

11. Russia and China’s Stance

Putin's Dilemma: Russia Between Iran & Israel

The Geography of China and how it has sewed its diplomatic and economic interests in that region.

12. Possible Scenarios

Best-case: diplomatic outcome

Worst Case: Open Regional War

Expert view Predictions, possible results.

13. Historical Parallels

Naturally, comparisons with historical assassinations led to tensions

• Historical lessons

14. International Diplomacy

• UN and others effort to negotiate
• In Praise Of Back-Channel Discussions

15. Conclusion

What's happening, in short

OPINION: How diplomacy and restraint can neutralize violence in Bahrain

Conclusion: is peace or war more probable - 3.

16. FAQs

Ismail Haniyeh - Gazetteer Hamas Leader, meta

• What is the Iranian ritual, that goes with such events in history and you are referring to here?
• Asks, "This Could Be The Spark That Lights A Full Blown Shooting War... But Is It?"
• What has this got to do with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, then?
• So how do you stop the crazy train?

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Introduction

The significant is the assassination of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Iran that has shocked various nations worldwide. Slideshow (4 Images)The drama on Wednesday did not only heighten anxiety around an increased war in the Middle East, but also come close to a direct confrontation between Iran and the United States -- one that might suck in other global powers. The UN Security Council called an emergency session in response to the deteriorating situation, with representatives expressing concern that it could descend into full-fledged war.

Who is Ismail Haniyeh?

He is a leading Hamas figure in Gaza, the Palestinian Islamist group that controls the enclave. Known for his hardline positions on Israel, Haniyeh is a top figure in the Hamas movement of Gaza. Secondly, his close relations with Iran (Hamas' longtime patron) could make things more complicated in terms of regional diplomacy. While Haniyeh also maintains a toehold in power outside of Gaza and is aligned with Tehran, which could be used as a partner for Hamas building more weaponry.

Details of the Killing

The Israeli attack was a well coordinated and sudden operation that took place in the Iranian capital Tehran leading to chaos not only between Arabs but also all over! Haniyeh died. The palnning was not at all clear about how the assassination would be done in detail, but it resulted immediatly on a large scale. Iranian authorities immediately condemned the explosion as a "flagrant act of terrorism" and said they would bring to justice all those deemed responsible.

Iran's Response

Iranian officials reacted with shock and anger, calling the killing an act of aggression not just against a friend or ally but one that crossed its sovereignty. While Iran's elite military organization, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has indicated it may retaliate, it refrained from revealing any details so far. The mood in Iran was one of anger and defiance, with many residents calling for a tough response to what they deemed an affront national pride. The threat of Iranian anti-US action, including those by local proxies in the region is considered remain significantly high.

Global Reactions

The international community was quick to react, with the UN Security Council calling an emergency meeting Tuesday on the situation. Most council members called for a ceasefire yesterday, but the United States, Russia and China issued warnings that this incident could lead to further escalation. The European Union has also called for calm at the very least, saying that talks were necessary to de-escalate.

Israel's Message to the Middle East: The New Norms

Gehad Haniyeh's death is can rock the boat in Middle East. Hamas supporters in Gaza, where Haniyeh was also a popular figure may have gone bonkers and lest loose seeking for his blood. Should violence explode, he warned of a rekindling the simmering embers that have underpinned flares in Israel-Palestine conflict and mounted anti-Israeli assaults so far. Other major regional powers such as Sunni Saudi Arabia and secular Turkey, who are rivals of Shiite Iran too will be closely following the unfolding events: a new conflagration is likely to aggravate an already highly flammable region.

UN Security Council concerns

The less obvious ones are the fact that this incident is an obligation for the Security Council of UN to address and, in their heart o hearths, their main worry is about if/how far it will escalate into a full scale war in Middle East. Now, as the fragile peace process gears up for crucial talks in Switzerland weeks from now, fears over what looks less like a potential disaster and more like an inevitable reality are sending chills through Washington -- "potentially a 9-11 each day," according to one top American counter-terrorism official. The council called on all parties involved to avoid using force and "resolve disputes through communication" warning that the consequences of failure would be "catastrophic."

Impact on Domestic Politics in Iran

The assassination of Haniyeh at such a farntic area from the Islamic Regime would have some deep and wide fare reaching repercussions with Iranians - locally both to be used politically as well as: - Encouraging this Secret Police even more concerning bitch on its Right Wingtard coward nasty bullshit vendetta death ride into their homeland sovereignty worse. It came at a time when Iran is mired in an acute domestic crisis marked by deepening economic misery and political chaos. The way the government acts during this crisis will either increase its grip on power or further pull Indonesians apart. Providing the context of upcoming elections in Iran, it can resonate for various political factions who may wish to portray their own interests (with hardliners calling for a harder line yet against an external threat perception).

Israel's Position

If Haniyeh was killed, it would be the greatest hit against Hamas ever by any stretch of imagination even if a strike could somehow traced back to Israeli actions — though this is speculation that has been running riot between Gaza City and Tel Aviv all day. For yes: killing him will weaken Hamas now where it is most sensitive; its leadership. But it also raises the possibility of retaliatory strikes at Israeli targets, both in Israel and abroad. Israel leaders have some freedom of action left to be careful for the moment but signs suggest that their security establishment has already begun preparing itself in case there should any waves rippling out of it.

U.S. Involvement

The United States is a prime friend of Israel and has important stakes in Middle East matters. The White House and the State Department have issued statements calling for calm, warning against any action that could escalate already-high tensions. But America also holds a powerful military presence in the region, and there are concerns any escalation would lead to U.S. troops becoming mired in yet another protracted conflict.

Russia and China have also failed to act.

Two of the five permanent Security Council members, Russia and China, although expressing concern about the killing [...] Aware, however of its diplomatic ties with both Iran and Israel, Russia is trying for the most part to have it both ways: speaking out against war at a public level while not shifting all-in too much leaning on either side. That comparison between the two nations is also apt considering, as Erik points out in his own article - China merely wants security for its economic investments and dependencies on the region. Both are expected to be central players in any international effort at mediation of the dispute.

Possible Scenarios

The following are some of the outcomes [that can occur] considering these moving parts: In this best-case scenario, everyone steps away from the precipice and opts for diplomacy. At worst, you are looking at a huge regional blaze that singes the entire Middle East and possibly well beyond. Between these two possibilities - either the eruption of escalated tension, reprisal and war short of full-scale warfare that experts with whom I have spoken seem to regard as certain at some level... or even militants themselves getting involved sooner than later... almost every expert predicts they will recurse back-and-forth.

Historical Parallels

History reminds us that wars can begin because of the assassination, such as 1914 in Sarajevo represented World War I; even with modern geopolitics vastly different from those prevailing a century ago, there is always ground for caution and containment against letting one event spiral into multiple deaths.

Why Global Diplomacy Matters

We recognize the critical role international diplomacy must play in addressing this crisis. And the other UN international

we say the two parties have to come on negotiations table - our bodies are doing this;} Hidden from public view, back-channel talks might be the only way to hammer down tensions and prevent an exacerbation of what is already a crisis. The degree to which these initiatives are able to find success should rest with determined negotiations on the part of one and all.

Conclusion

If the former minister is correct, that would indicate an escalation between two belligerents - Iran and Ismail Haniyeh's killing both counties are highly explosive in their own right within a region already brimming with tension. World powers, including the US and Russia are urging restraint to avoid a conflict that could be tantamount tot his being called for - full scale war by UN Security Council members. What happens in the coming days and weeks will be critical, as the world nods to see if this incident blossoms into a full scale war or is contained by slowing down all of us for peace.

FAQs

1. Why Hamas Role of Ismail Haniyeh at top

A leading member of Hamas, Haniyeh directed a lot of the group's military operations along with some political strategy although mainly in Gaza.

2. But this last example leads to a larger question; how has Iran in the past responded akin things?

Traditionally, Iran has responded to such incidents with its blazing rhetoric and actual- or proxy-based military strikes created under the mantra of verifying their interests and taking a reciprocation from alleged enemies.

3. What are the odds a real cigarette would come from waging full-scale war?

Even though this is quickly spiraling out of control, a hot war appears to be forthcoming. The diplomacy process is underway and keeping the fingers crossed that it does not lead to Corona World War.

4. Run Deep / Manners, Maketh A Man - The Impact of This On the Israel-Palestine Conflict

The incident could inflame further unrest between Jews and Palestinians in Israel-Palestine, as well as increase the level of Gaza violence.

5. If this is going to spiral even more out of control somehow. So, if that's where we are what do we have alternatively in view or ready to pass?

Nonetheless, de-escalation depends on continued diplomatic contact and inaction by all parties with third party international bodies (e.g. the UN) acting as a mediator.

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